Most people I know

Apr 03, 2024

“In the end we will remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends.” - Martin Luther King Jr

Preamble:

Once you know you can’t unknow. You can’t look away. It can feel lonely, scary or like you’ve gone crazy. Or maybe the world has? The way we are living feels so at odds with reality. The change we need feels impossibly far away and often it feels like we’re moving in the wrong direction.

It’s hard to talk about because there is so much to say. So many layers. So many untruths, delay-tactics and distractions. It’s hard to speak about it without becoming upset or sounding alarmist. It’s hard to know what others already know. It’s hard because you don’t want to bring people down. You don’t want to alienate the people you love, the people you depend on, the people who depend on you.

But you know it’ll be much harder if we don’t talk about it. You know that we need everyone to know. You know we need everyone to get involved. You know things could be so much better and fairer. You know we’ll wish we’d all known and started sooner. You know that time is running out.

So, this is my open letter to the people I know.

Most people I know are decent, generous and fair. They love their family and friends. They treat strangers with courtesy and care. They have demanding jobs that they worked hard to get, and they work hard to deliver. They want to be successful and be recognised for a job well done.

Most people I know have an increasingly expensive mortgage or are saving to get one. Some are caring for kids or parents or both. Some are grappling with ill health or relationship issues or stress at work, or all three. Some are lonely. Many suffer hostility and discrimination because of their skin colour, gender, sexuality, faith, or some other core part of them.

Most people I know have responsibilities and people who depend on them. They are trying to do good while doing well. They are trying to look after themselves, to make healthy choices, exercise, and eat well.

They are busy. They are tired. They have suffered and they carry wounds and scars. Yet, they carry on. They do their best.

Most people I know are concerned about climate change, yet few are talking about it. They hear frequent news reports of raging wildfires, record-breaking temperature highs, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, extreme weather events, drought, famine, floods and conflict.

Yet daily pressures continue. They carry on. They continue to do what they can. They pay attention. They try to eat less meat, recycle, turn down the heating.

They hear David Attenborough warn of devastating nature loss and of wildlife in ‘catastrophic decline’[1]. They hear the UN Secretary General speak of climate change as ‘an atlas of human suffering’. They hear climate scientists and activists speak of urgency and crisis. They hear of a ‘final warning’ and ‘code red’ for humanity [2].

Yet they see others carrying on as normal. They see political leaders granting new fossil fuel licences, rolling back climate policy, flying in private jets and speaking of perpetual economic growth. They hear positive sounding stories of reductions in national CO₂ emissions, of early steps towards carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles, bio-fuels, a growing renewables sector and net zero pledges.

They may tell themselves that things are in hand, that people are ‘working on it’ and ‘it’ll be ok’ and in any case ‘what more could I do?’.

Eighteen months ago, this was me. I knew enough to know that things were bad, but I didn’t know the half of it.

This letter is the result of the ensuing period of research, realisation and a reckoning with our shared predicament. This is the candid, independent and big picture perspective that I wish I had sooner, and I wish everyone knew. My goal is to break the silence, to provide an accelerated on-ramp for others, and to ignite the motivation to act before it is too late.

Without wishing to deter you, you may find what follows is overwhelming. I know I often did and do. But this letter isn’t to add pressure in an already pressurised world. It is to lay out what we all know deep in our bones, and to create coherence and community in the chaos. Before we continue, here are three important things I want you to know as you read:

1. I write from a place of deep concern but also hope. A different and better future is possible, and I am committed to playing my part, alongside millions of others who are already active. The more I look, the more I see examples of brave, creative groups of people making a difference against the odds, the barriers that could be removed and the talent and huge potential that has not yet been unleashed.

2. We need to know where we are and what is going on. This is by no means easy or comfortable, but it is only by accepting our current reality, with as much nuance, curiosity and compassion as we can muster, that we can hope to change our future. The crises we face are complex but connected, and when we start to join the dots, the root causes and actions we must take become clearer and more effective.

3. You are about to climb an emotional Everest. I know. The more we understand, the more we realise how much there is to grieve, to fear and how much change is needed, change that may feel impossible. So, make sure now is a good time to read this letter. Do so in a place that feels safe and at a time that feels right, and take your time.

Part 1: What we know about where we are

“Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced.” - James Baldwin

More than a climate crisis: life on the edge

The climate crisis is unfolding within a broader context of multiple related crises that compound to threaten the lives and livelihoods of all of us. The natural world is perilously out of balance, having crossed six of nine planetary boundaries [3], one of which is climate change, taking us beyond the safe space that supports health and life. We are depleting our fresh water resources, destroying our soils, forests and seas, risking our food sources and poisoning the very air we breathe. This amounts to humanity knowingly destroying the natural support systems upon which all life depends.

We all pollute and feel the effects, but not equally

There is a gross inequity at the heart of these crises in cause and consequence. It is children, people of colour, women, and the poor, those who contribute the least harm and receive the least financial benefits, who face the first and most devastating harms [4]. The richest 1% of humanity emit as much planet-heating pollution as the poorest two-thirds[5], enough to cause 1.3 million excess deaths due to heat in a single year. The richest 10%, anyone earning more than about £32,000 per year, cause up to forty times more climate-warming emissions than the poorest 10%[6].

As a result of global warming, hundreds of millions of people have already suffered from more intense and frequent droughts, famine, wildfires and extreme-weather events; leading to conflicts, displacement [7], disease and death. Even the luckiest among us, so far insulated from the most acute and obvious climate disasters, are suffering too, as the degradation of nature plays havoc with our health, wealth and happiness in myriad ways:

Almost the entire global population (99%) breathes air that falls short of air quality standards [8], causing 10 million early deaths [9] every year.
In our daily lives we are exposed to harmful toxins from plastics and other chemicals [10], many of which are known to be dangerous to health and fertility [11] and most of which have not been tested for safety [12]. This chemical exposure disproportionally [13] affects women, people on low incomes and people of colour.
Deforestation, intensified by industrial animal agriculture, and loss of key species, drives acute health crises like pandemics [14], as invasive species multiply and carry new pathogens to humans [15].
Our modern diets, based on intensive agriculture, chemical inputs and ultra-processing, are making us sicker while polluting our soils, rivers and seas [16].
Crop failures, food shortages and fluctuating fossil-fuel prices push up inflation, contributing to a brutal cost of living crisis for billions [17] with little to no safety net. Since 2019, 122 million more people have been pushed into hunger around the world [18].
The costs of damage from extreme weather events has reached $16m per hour [19], paid for by public funds and rising insurance premiums. This is then counted within GDP growth, and mistakenly celebrated as a sign of economic progress rather than the reality of destruction, waste and avoidable costs.

These harms degrade our lives, create physical and emotional stressors and contribute to unprecedented rates of non-communicable diseases like diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancers, allergies, auto-immune conditions, infertility and mental health conditions. We are depleting our resilience, spirit and imagination when we have never needed these qualities more.

Pollution that is inconceivably large and long-lasting, yet largely invisible

The damage we have done is so large that it is hard to grasp and harder still because we cannot see it. Since the start of the industrial revolution, humans have put 1.5 trillion tonnes of invisible polluting, planet-warming gases [20] into our delicate atmosphere. This exceeds the weight of everything we have ever built [21] and all living matter on the planet [22], and it remain in the atmosphere, continuing to warm the planet, for thousands of years. We will never see or touch these greenhouse gases, nor the microplastics and chemicals in our blood, organs and food, but we will feel their effects, long into the future.

A hard deadline beyond which we unleash unstoppable forces

Every minute spent burning more fossil fuels, we add to the cumulative concentration of pollutants in the air, resulting in further, inevitable warming [23]. But this warming does not follow a smooth, linear or fully predictable trajectory. Humanity’s green-house gas emissions have started to trigger the earth’s natural warming processes, known as ‘feedback loops’. For example, as glaciers melt, there is less white surface to reflect back the sun’s heat. As ice sheets become surrounded by warmer water they melt faster until a ‘tipping point’ is reached where total melting and associated sea level rises are inevitable [24]. Another feedback loop is the melting of permafrost [25], thick layers of frozen soil that cover large parts of the earth’s surface. As permafrost melts, vast and unknowable quantities planet-warming methane, a gas with 20 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide, is released into the air, along with toxins and dormant microbe species [26]. With all this warming and pollution, we diminish our natural defences and tip the planet even further out of balance. Degraded oceans, soils, grasslands and forests can no longer absorb carbon and other pollutants from the air. Erratic rainfall results in flourishing growth then prolonged dry-spells, creating a tinder box of dried forests that are highly susceptible to wild-fires, releasing billions of tonnes of pollutants in acute disasters with dramatic loss to life [27]. Scientists [28] warn that we are already on the cusp of crossing five such natural tipping points and three more risk being crossed in the 2030s. All of these feedback effects and more interact and reinforce one other, creating a domino effect.

This is the key point: there will come a time, we don’t know exactly when, when our futile efforts to stop burning fossil fuels become irrelevant [29]. When nature’s forces will take over and cannot be stopped on human timescales as we enter a period of so-called ‘run-away warming’ and irreversible harms. As if this wasn’t bad enough, these natural tipping points have been ‘under-researched, under-reported and under-estimated’, says Simon Sharpe [30], author of Five Times Faster and Director of Economics for the UN Climate Champions, writing in 2023. Given the unpredictability of these feedback effects, their impacts on warming are not factored into the scenarios prepared by The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC, which represents the latest consensus of scientific evidence from 195 countries, is the reference point for decision-makers around the world. The implication is that we face much more rapid warming than previously thought, more extreme change to the climate and resulting harm, our window to act is shorter than we think, and those in positions of influence may not fully grasp this.

There is still time (but only just)

Our understanding of natural tipping points is the key driver behind the international pledge to limit global warming to 1.5°C, creating a ‘defence line’ beyond which the risk of runaway warming and assured chaos becomes all too real. It is they key reason why the period to 2030 has been described as ‘the decisive decade’ for humanity.

But we are failing to meet that goal. Climate scientists predict we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold within a matter or years [31] and there is a vast chasm between current policy and what is needed [32]. We know we need to reduce fossil fuel emissions by 50% by 2030, but, instead, we are on track to increase them by 8.8% over the same period [33]. The so-called ‘decisive decade’, is slipping away. But it doesn’t have to.

Part 2: What we need to know: the forces that frustrate progress but could be overcome

What began as humanity’s quest for food and an incredible capacity to innovate, has created an unsustainable and hungry economic superorganism [34], growing in size and complexity, polluting and extracting more and more from nature. The climate crisis is an inevitable consequence of a wasteful fossil-fuelled economy, predicated on consumerism and endless growth. Scientists warned world leaders [35] about climate change as early as 1985 and since then millions of people have dedicated themselves to tackling it, yet thinking and progress has been constrained and frustrated along the way. Three key forces get in our way, all of which could be overcome.

1. Growth as a Given

There is an (often unstated) assumption that growth is good. More than good, it is essential. How often do you hear from a business or political leader who is not pursuing growth? With a few key exceptions, growth is seen as a key marker of success, an obvious and unquestionable goal. Short-term growth is often the implicit measure by which business and political leaders’ success is judged. Investors seek to grow capital, boards and executives to grow the companies they lead. In order to repay debts, companies and nations say they need to grow. Flanked by classically trained economists, political leaders put national GDP growth at the heart of strategy, underpinned by a sincere belief in growth as an essential lever to improve the lives of citizens.

The ironic tragedy is that as we pursue growth in all industries and at all costs we destroy the very nature—the water, resources and human spirit—upon which those industries depend. Since the 1970s, humanity’s annual demands on the natural world have exceeded its capacity to regenerate, commonly described as ‘ecological overshoot’[36]. The World Economic Forum estimates that at least 50% of the global economy is at immediate risk [37] due to the degradation of nature, as economies and entire sectors rely on healthy soils, clean water and a stable climate. The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries estimates 80% of GDP is at risk this century [38], and highlights the collective blind-spots that fail to account for this in mainstream financial assumptions. Simply put, the global economy as we know it cannot survive the chaos of climate and nature breakdown. We cannot keep growing beyond the natural capacity of the planet to regenerate and absorb waste.

This challenge to the growth paradigm is not a new idea and not mine. In the early 1970s, the seminal Limits to Growth report [39] warned of the impossibility of infinite economic growth on a finite planet, predicting that human civilisation would break down in the 21^st century if trends continued. In 2023, on the 50-year anniversary of the report’s publication, scientists warned that we are on track for the worst scenario [40] described by the original team. Despite the publication of this landmark report half a century ago, these ideas have been blocked from reaching the mainstream, boardrooms and halls of political power.

Even at an individual level, we live in a world where we are constantly prompted to consume more. We are called ‘consumers’ and sold aspirational stories of success that centre around bigger homes, more powerful cars, the latest gadgets and fashions and more frequent holidays in exotic destinations. While most of us would agree that success at the expense of our own or someone else’s health is not the kind of success we want, we have not yet connected the dots. We have not yet grasped that the more we pursue individual luxury and material possessions, the more we erode that which we value most: our health, wealth and the prospects for our children. As a powerful illustration of this phenomenon, consider that in 2022, 1 billion tonnes of planet-warming pollution came from SUVs alone [41], equivalent to the emissions of sixth largest nation in the world.

All of this hungry growth has amounted to unprecedented demand for energy, such that incredible advances in renewable energy, have thus far only added to the total energy mix rather than reducing demand for polluting fossil fuels [42]. Even if we could switch to renewables at a fast enough pace, the required metals and minerals, mined using fossil fuels, scarce water resources and people, wreak environmental harm [43] and approach further limitations in resource availability [44] contributing to further conflicts.

The widespread assumption that global economic growth can be ‘decoupled’ from pollution, energy and materials consumption, so-called ‘green growth’, is not, so far, backed up by real-world evidence. A review of 179 articles [45] concluded that there is ‘no evidence of economy-wide, national or international absolute resource decoupling’ and that the goal of decoupling rests partly on ‘faith’. Whether it will eventually become possible or not is beside the point, we have run out of time to test the theory [46].

These growth dynamics create a disincentive for common-sense policies to conserve energy and materials. Instead, businesses are incentivised to create low-quality products that don’t last (so-called ‘planned obsolescence’) and to employ ever-more creative and morally dubious marketing tactics to generate artificial demand for products, while making meaningless statements about ‘carbon neutrality’ or incompatible and unsupported pledges to net zero. Meanwhile, investors, Boards and corporate leaders are presiding over unprecedented commercial risks that are grossly underestimated [47].

Note on common terms:

Net Zero, used correctly, is understood to require extensive reduction in green-house gas emissions (The Science-Based Targets Initiative, SBTi requires 90% reduction) before any use of (credible) offsets.

Carbon Neutral is not a well-defined term but tends to be used by organisations because they have ‘offset’ all of their greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, these offsets are usually not credible [48] and simply relate to existing forests, not new ways of removing of pollutants from the atmosphere. Worse than that though, they confuse and create a dangerous illusion of progress, and are often used as permission to continue or expand polluting business-as-usual activities. This has led to the development of the Oxford Protocol on offsetting [49] and calls for regulation of the carbon credit markets.

We need to start solving the crises with reference to the laws of nature rather than the incomplete ideas of mainstream economics. We need to put all the ideas and tools on the table. We need to be much more selective about what we grow, why and for whom, if we want to restore and protect the underlying value of nature, people and wealth. We need to stop wasting precious resources on fundamentally unhealthy sectors and assets that will inevitably become stranded.

2. Concentrated Wealth, Power and Sabotage

The story goes that with economic growth more people are lifted out of poverty, benefiting us all. Notwithstanding the gaps and inherent unsustainability of that story, the data suggests it is also no longer true. Since 2020, extreme poverty and extreme wealth have been increasing in parallel [50], with the richest 1% capturing almost two-thirds of all new wealth and billionaire fortunes increasing by $2.7bn a day [51]. Such extreme wealth funds the lavish lifestyles of an elite few, wasting precious energy, resources and money on gratuitous, polluting endeavours like mansions, super-yachts and private jets. A widening gap between rich and poor has created a breeding ground for dissent, division and distrust, while eroding the fabric of societies and creating inertia. Why should ordinary people make an effort when such gratuitous waste and corruption goes unchecked?

With all that wealth comes concentrated power and outsized influence. Borrowing directly from the ‘big tobacco playbook’, the deliberate campaign by the fossil fuel industry to seed doubt and delay action on climate has been well-documented [52]. Yet, the perpetrators have not been held to account. To this day, opaque channels, through lobbying or the actions of trade associations and think tanks [53], funnel billions to perpetuate vested fossil fuel and other elite corporate interests. Tactics include the spread of misinformation, doubt and the vilification of climate protesters [54]. Sectors like big food, big pharma and big agriculture engage in similar tactics [55], lobbying government policy, muddying the research [56] and profiting from destructive, harmful products and practices. Billions more in public funds subsidise fossil fuels [57] and other destructive, high-emitting industries like industrial fisheries [58].

Some corporate organisations and their investors exert control through a secretive and little-known legal system housed by the World Bank. The Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) enables companies to sue nations [59] which introduce regulations that could harm hypothetical profits. Thousands of such actions and threats have been levied against over a hundred nations by organisations in a range of sectors, and especially from mining and oil and gas [60], intended to block regulations that would improve health, social and environmental outcomes. Despite some successful government push-back and civil resistance in recent years [61], the system persists, weakening the influence of political leaders to protect public interests. A 2023 UN report [62] described the ISDS as a ‘major obstacle’ to the urgent action needed to address human and planetary crises, highlighting that fossil fuel and mining industries have already received over $100 billion in awards.

An important aside, while fossil fuel companies are big abusers of this shadowy legal system, this only applies to a small subset of the sector since 90% of fossil fuel reserves are under state control [63] and the biggest fossil fuel companies in the world are state-owned. The private company oil majors take the majority of the public heat, but the biggest, BP, produces a tenth of what Saudi Aramco does in a day.

Taken together, these forces combine to create a maddening cycle that impedes progress and ensures that ordinary citizens pick up the bill again and again. Billions in public money is spent to subsidise harmful sectors, then to repair the inevitable destruction of property and infrastructure and for the increasingly expensive healthcare, insurance and food. It is public money that covers the legal bills when governments (those that are not petrostates that is!) are sued by corporates for attempting to regulate against such harms.

These perplexing dynamics persist precisely because they exist in the shadows. We must shine a light on these practices and support the movements to shut them down. Unless we stop these harmful forces, all of our efforts to build a better future will be in vain.

3. Illusions of Progress, Lack of Accountability, and an Incomplete Plan

The historic Paris Agreement in 2015 saw 195 nations commit to legally binding action to limit the worst harms of climate change. This remarkable, break-through moment was a feat of international diplomacy and a critical milestone in raising humanity’s collective consciousness and commitment. It created a framework for nations to set targets and track progress against so-called ‘nationally determined contributions’.

As momentous and important as this was, we must not allow ourselves to be fooled into a false sense of security. In national commitments, there is a long list of exclusions with emissions from imported goods, international shipping and aviation, military, exports, agriculture and biofuels not counted [64], so no nation is accountable to tackle these significant sources of harm[a]. One of the worst examples from the UK is that our biggest national polluter, Drax Energy, is not counted in UK emissions [65], since so-called ‘bio-mass energy’ (energy from burning trees) is considered renewable, a spurious claim that is widely challenged [66]. Such loopholes result in net harm and distrust at home and abroad. By excluding emissions from imported goods, a perverse incentive is created for wealthy nations to offshore manufacturing, destroying local livelihoods while creating a net increase globally in pollution and waste. 90% of everything we buy arrives by shipping container [67] and none of these emissions are regulated or counted in any national plan. The significant upswing in military conflict in recent years [68], impossible to quantify in terms of human tragedy and trauma, is completely missing from any accounting of pollution. The armed conflict survey of 2023 describes [69] the accelerating climate crisis as a multiplier both of root causes and institutional weakness to respond to conflict, creating another vicious cycle.

We have no way of knowing therefore what total progress is being made. Even if every nation in the world met their pledges (and currently none are on track to do so [70]) we would still not meet the emissions reductions required to avoid dangerous tipping points.

Finally, while nations legally committed to tackle the climate crisis in Paris, businesses, the players with direct responsibility for the vast majority of planet-warming pollution [71], did not [72]. Though thousands of organisations have signed up to voluntary action through various Net Zero Alliances, the science-based targets initiative, the carbon disclosure project and other initiatives, accountability among businesses is not yet universal nor legally binding. Nor are such initiatives necessarily reliable or effective, as journalists’ investigations have revealed in the fashion sector, where claims to reduce year-on-year pollution were found to be false [73]. By marketing themselves as eco-friendly, such brands further fuel the underlying drivers of consumption, and associated pollution, that sit at their core of their business model.

Since sectors and businesses operate as vast, interconnected global markets, the seismic transitions needed will demand radical and rapid collaboration on an international, not national, scale across investors, non-profits, government and businesses. Yet there are few actors or institutions tasked with accountability [74] for these seismic international leadership and coordination efforts.

The key risk is that of a smokescreen, a dangerous illusion of progress that fuels apathy or misplaced optimism based on incomplete information. While huge, laudable efforts are expended by some nations and corporations, our plans will never work until:

Everything and everyone is included.
Extractive, consumptive business models that rely on endless growth are stopped, and fundamentally redesigned to be circular and sustainable.
We ramp up collaboration to transform international sectors, grounded in a fuller understanding of the big picture.

Part 3: What Knowing Means for us Now

What Does the Future Hold?

The future is far from set. There are multiple possible futures and myriad paths from here. None of us can see the whole picture or possibly predict exactly how this will play out.

But a few things are clear.

Until we stop burning fossil fuels, planetary warming, pollution and the destruction of nature will continue, creating further profound and preventable loss and pain. Esteemed climate scientist and chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Sir David King, predicts [75] the first large-scale catastrophic event where humidity and temperature will exceed the limit of human survivability by the end of this decade. Such an event, known as a ‘wet-bulb temperature event’[76], could kill millions of people and animals in a matter of days[b]. On the current trajectory [77], over 800 million people in 570 cities across the world, including New York, Miami, Mumbai, Bangkok and Shanghai will be threatened by rising seas and coastal flooding by 2050, with the potential to destroy businesses and homes and trillions of dollars in real estate value. By 2050, 1 in 8 people, over a billion, could be forcibly displaced from their homes [78], creating a global refugee crisis of dire proportions. We do not know precisely where or when the next wet-bulb temperature event, tsunami, wildfire, food failure or pandemic will hit, but we know that they are coming with increasing potency, frequency, pain and cost. According to the latest IPCC reports [79], almost half of the world’s population, 3.6 billion people, are living in contexts that are highly vulnerable to devastating climate-related shocks. We are on track to see ‘economy destroying levels of heating’[80], according to UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and a world that is no longer insurable [81]. Notwithstanding its myriad positive applications, the reckless rapid rollout of generative AI in this context acts as a multiplier of compounding risks [82], further fuelling misinformation, distrust and polarisation, while accelerating the engine for growth of resource and energy consumption. Ultimately, we risk destroying everything and everyone we love, and leaving our children with the embers of an irreparably damaged, chaotic and dangerous world.

In the medium term, there will be winners and losers. Unwitting boards, investors and corporate leaders risk presiding over catastrophic losses, failing in their fiduciary duties to shareholders and citizens alike.

But a different future is possible. There are so many paths to safety that most of us are not yet taking.

With the implementation of just climate policy, we could create a fairer, healthier, more peaceful and prosperous world. Many of the solutions that bring us back from the brink of climate chaos also tackle the shared root causes of our interconnected health, economic, geopolitical and social crises. We can stop destroying and instead nurture the amazing regenerative power of nature, its soils [83], seas and wild-lands and our fellow species. We can grow our food [84] in a way that enhances human health and absorbs more pollutants than it produces. We can stop wasting food and eat fewer ultra-processed products, improving health and reducing pressure on strained health services. We can eat less meat and dairy and transition away from industrial animal agriculture, removing a key driver of deforestation, improving soil and water conservation and reducing anti-microbial resistance [85]. We can drastically reduce our use of plastics, improving health and saving billions in healthcare costs [86]. We can insulate buildings, reducing energy consumption, saving money, and improving energy security all at once. We can create a distributed network of renewable energy, empowering local communities and reducing reliance on the concentrated power of petrostates and wildly fluctuating energy prices.

We can responsibly leverage technologies to mitigate rather than complicate or exploit these unfolding crises. We can invest our money in the future, rather than doubling down and paying the bills for past mistakes. We can invest our time and talent in the organisations of the future, and divest from those that erode nature and society. We can transform our economies in service of life and health and away from growth-at-all costs. We can embrace much more circular ways of creating wealth that conserve energy and materials and reduce waste. We can share the wealth we create, rather than funnelling it to a few at the top. First and foremost, we must urgently and dramatically reduce the burning of fossil fuels to zero to keep these hopeful possibilities alive.

What now?

This is an urgent, profound and unifying call to action for all of us. We have our work cut out for us. The hour is late and the task is immense. The actions we take or fail to take in the coming years will impact the arc of humanity’s future and the quality and longevity of the lives of all generations, current and future. We are living in the most decisive moment in human history and that we must seize the opportunity before we lose it forever.

Creating a better future starts by recognising that each of us has a choice and a crucial role to play. Every bit of warming matters and every action to bend the emissions curve downwards is an action worth taking. We must activate authentic, ambitious and creative action within and across every community, organisation and nation around the world. We must unleash the largest and most inclusive change movement of all time. We must radically transform of our economies and societies, each person, community and organisation at a time. For the lucky among us with the most material wealth, we must help each other shift our norms and stories of success, embracing more joy and less stuff, and a simpler, healthier and more meaningful, lower-energy lifestyle.

What that means for each of us will look different depending on our role, age, stage, skills, resources, relationships and income. There is no shortage of recommendations, plans and ideas and there is much we can all do. But most people are not yet active. Most citizens, business leaders and politicians are not yet speaking and acting like we are in crisis. We must each take the time to reflect, absorb and decide how we can best contribute. We need all of us, our energy, talents and capabilities; we need lawyers, organisers, educators, story-tellers, creatives, investors, accountants and leaders in every organisation. We need hearts, minds and hands. We need our adaptability and resilience, our love of a challenge, good humour and creative spirit.

We need most people I know.

As I conclude this letter, I invite you to reflect on what you have read. To let it sink in, to share it, to talk to me or to others, to feel whatever you may feel, to seek and offer support. The focus of my writing from here will be on how we move to action together and the stories of people who are already doing just that.

And finally, to the millions of people already working against the odds to tackle and respond to these crises, the climate scientists, sustainability professionals, activists, journalists, business and political leaders, community organisers, aid workers, medics and citizens, let us say:

Thank you. Sorry we’re late . How can we help?

About the author:

Pamela McGill is an independent leadership consultant and coach, with a background in psychology and physics. She works with individual leaders and leadership teams to translate good intentions into real-world impact. She is on a mission to unleash REAL leadership as a force for good. She works with clients to engage with reality and to re-shape cultures and systems to be more Regenerative and Equitable, through Aligned Action and Learning.

References:

[a] Note, for shipping and aviation, there are separate international efforts to reduce emissions but these are notoriously difficult especially as growth outpaces the impact of efficiency improvements.

[b] For a chilling depiction of how a wet-bulb temperature event would play out read Chapter 1 of Kim Stanley Robinson’s Ministry for the Future.

[1] David Attenborough’s Witness Statement: ‘A Life On Our Planet’ - Impakter

[2] https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362

[3] https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/a-full-picture-of-planetary-resilience-all-boundaries-mapped-out-six-of-nine-crossed

[4] https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fs-public/file_attachments/mb-extreme-carbon-inequality-021215-en.pdf

[5] https://www.oxfam.org.uk/media/press-releases/richest-1-emit-as-much-planet-heating-pollution-as-two-thirds-of-humanity-oxfam/

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/revealed-huge-climate-impact-of-the-middle-classes-carbon-divide#:~:text=The%20richest%2010%25%20of%20people,data%20obtained%20by%20the%20Guardian.

[7] https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/06/1120542

[8] https://www.who.int/news/item/04-04-2022-billions-of-people-still-breathe-unhealthy-air-new-who-data

[9] https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n23/david-wallace-wells/ten-million-a-year

[10] https://news.mongabay.com/2021/09/novel-entities-are-we-sleepwalking-through-a-planetary-boundary/

[11] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/20/glyphosate-weedkiller-cancer-biomarkers-urine-study